The AFL’s Unpredictable Dance: Round 23 Insights and Beyond
The AFL never fails to surprise, and Round 23 of 2026 is no exception. With the season reaching its climax, every match carries weight, every prediction feels like a gamble, and every outcome could reshape the finals landscape. Let’s dive into the weekend’s fixtures, but not just as a rundown—let’s explore the stories, the stakes, and the human drama that make this sport so compelling.
Fremantle vs. Adelaide: The Battle of Unfulfilled Potential
Fremantle, sitting pretty at the top, seems like the obvious favorite. But here’s the thing: their recent loss to Melbourne raises questions. Are they truly Grand Final material, or is there a chink in their armor? Personally, I think this game is less about Fremantle’s dominance and more about Adelaide’s desperation. The Crows, clinging to a top-six spot, need to prove they belong. What makes this particularly fascinating is how both teams are at a crossroads—neither has progressed beyond a semi-final since 2017. This isn’t just a game; it’s a test of character. Prediction? Fremantle by 15 points, but don’t be surprised if Adelaide makes it ugly.
Richmond vs. St Kilda: The Saints’ Dominance Continues?
Richmond, despite their valiant effort against Adelaide, looks outmatched here. St Kilda has owned this fixture for years, winning six of the last seven meetings. But here’s where it gets interesting: Richmond is playing for pride, with Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad’s farewell adding emotional weight. In my opinion, while the Saints should win, Richmond’s spirit might keep the margin closer than expected. St Kilda by 20 points feels right, but don’t rule out a Tiges fightback.
North Melbourne vs. Geelong: Breaking the Streak?
North Melbourne’s win against the Bulldogs was a highlight, but let’s not forget their history against Geelong—15 straight losses. Geelong, on the other hand, is on fire with four consecutive wins. What many people don’t realize is that North’s slim wildcard chances hinge on this game. Can they pull off the upset? Personally, I think Geelong’s momentum will be too much, but North’s newfound confidence could make this closer than the 31-point prediction suggests.
Brisbane vs. Gold Coast: The Q-Clash to Watch
Brisbane is the clear favorite, but Gold Coast’s recent win against GWS shows they’re not to be underestimated. Matt Rowell’s performance was a reminder of his talent, but Brisbane’s depth and form make them a formidable opponent. From my perspective, this game is about Brisbane’s finals push rather than Gold Coast’s pride. Brisbane by 29 points feels fair, but if Rowell fires again, the Suns could cause a scare.
Hawthorn vs. Collingwood: The Tactical Masterpiece
This is the game I’m most excited about. Two smart coaches, high stakes, and a recent draw between these teams make this a must-watch. Hawthorn’s bounce-back ability after heavy losses is impressive, but Collingwood’s system is relentless. One thing that immediately stands out is how both teams handle pressure. Prediction? Hawthorn by 8 points, but this could go either way. What this really suggests is that both teams are finals-ready.
Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne: Mismatch of the Round
Melbourne is flying high after beating Fremantle, while Port Adelaide’s season is all but over. The Power’s inability to score is their Achilles’ heel, and Melbourne’s high-scoring style will exploit that. A detail that I find especially interesting is Port’s defensive record—better than Melbourne’s. But without key players, they’re toothless. Melbourne by 39 points feels like a safe bet, and Kysaiah Pickett could light up the Oval.
GWS vs. West Coast: Giants’ Last Stand
GWS is in freefall, and West Coast, despite their struggles, could make this interesting. The Giants’ home advantage should see them through, but their recent form is worrying. If you take a step back and think about it, this game is about survival—GWS’s finals streak is on the line. GWS by 28 points is the prediction, but West Coast’s unpredictability could make this a closer contest.
Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton: Wildcard Preview?
Carlton’s resurgence under Josh Fraser is one of the season’s best stories. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are limping toward the finish line. This feels like a Carlton win, especially with their form and Fraser’s undefeated record at Marvel. Carlton by 15 points seems likely, but the Bulldogs’ pride could make this a gritty contest.
Essendon vs. Sydney: The Swans’ Quiet Charge
Sydney is flying under the radar, and that’s dangerous. Their midfield strength and recent form make them a serious contender. Essendon, on the other hand, is counting down the days until the season ends. Sydney by 62 points feels harsh, but the Bombers’ injury woes make it plausible. This raises a deeper question: Can Sydney go all the way this year?
Final Thoughts
Round 23 is more than just a series of matches—it’s a narrative of ambition, resilience, and redemption. Every team has something to prove, and every result could reshape the finals picture. Personally, I think this weekend will separate the contenders from the pretenders. As we head into September, one thing is clear: the AFL’s unpredictability is its greatest strength. Strap in—it’s going to be a wild ride.
